Mike Alvarado Vs Brandon Rios – Preview, Prediction and Betting Tip

rios

Brandon Rios and Mike Alvarado will complete a trilogy this weekend and if the third fight is anything like the first two fights between these two, it will be a trilogy to remember.

Both have notched up a win against the other, in fact both handed the other their first professional loss. While in terms of titles on the line, this may not be the most significant bout in the boxing calendar. Still this is a rubber match not to be missed.

20121010__20121011_B1_SP11BOXALVARADOp1

THE STORY ON – MIKE ALVARADO

Record – Won – 34 (23 KO’s) Lost – 3 (2 KO’s) Drawn – 0

Odds – 5/4

Alvarado is former high school wrestling champion, turned boxer, he didn’t have the most extensive amateur career but he did notch up wins against the likes of Andre Dirrell, finishing with an amateur record of 26-5.

Outside of the ring Alvarado has had his issues, serving a 5 month prison sentence earlier on in his career and is currently awaiting gun charges at present time, this could be a factor mentally as this bout grows imminent.

Mike Alvarado is a boxer, brawler – puncher type fighter, his instinct is to go to war but when disciplined he can box effectively, as displayed in his 2nd fight with Rios. Alvarado was able to use his reach to dictate distance and take control of the fight on the outside, if he can follow this blueprint this weekend, he can repeat his 2013 win.

However it’s easier said than done keeping a warrior like Rios at bay, since that win Alvarado has took a beat down from Provodnikov and some heavy punishment from Juan Manuel Marquez. These losses may have took their tool on the 34 year old.

It could be argued that Alvarado is a shop worn fighter now, however the same could be said for his opponent this weekend.

Brandon-Rios-Boxing1

THE STORY ON – BRANDON RIOS

Record – Won – 32 (KO’s 23), Lost 2 (KO 0), Drawn 1

Odds – 8/11

Rios is a warrior that only knows one direction in a boxing ring, where ever his opponent may be at any given time. He may not have the boxing IQ or skill set of elite fighters however he has brute strength, KO power and a solid chin. Rios is a great inside fighter that looks to wear his opponents into submission through pure strength and power.

Rios has a more extended amateur career than his opponent this weekend finishing on 230-35 and winning a national championship, he is trained by Robert Garcia who is a trainer I rate in terms tactical acumen, knowing his fighters and getting the best out their skill-set. He may be a valuable asset in Rio’s corner this weekend.

Rio’s has spoken of retirement if he loses according to his trainer Garcia, Rio’s is another fighter who’s style has meant plenty of ammunition has been landed on his chin over the years, he really is a fighter who takes one to land one, a real tough gritty warrior.

If Rios can turn this into a war of attrition and make this a gruelling inside fight, he will win the trilogy this weekend.

THE STATISTICS

 

courtesy of boxstat.co

PREDICTION – ALVARADO SD

This is a tough fight to call, both fighters have probably seen better days and really there is only one outcome that would really surprise me in this fight, and that is if Alvarado stopped Rios, any other outcome is very live in my opinion.

This makes betting the fight very difficult, and considering how things went last weekend I am inclined to suggest we sit this one out and just enjoy what should be a thrilling fight. It’s a long year ahead and there will be plenty of good spots for us to get our money in strong positions.

However I think I am going to have a little whirl on the draw in this one, I see another close fight, in Alvarado’s home town of Colorado. I can see a similar fight to the second encounter Rios starting strong and Alvarado finding some rhythm down the stretch.

I am suggesting you sit this one out but if I had to pin point where I feel the most value sits in the market I would have to say Alvarado by decision at 5/2 Betvictor or possibly Rios by decision at 3/1 Sky Bet. But its too risky in my opinion as I do feel Alvarado can ‘go’ if Rios catches him so a Rios stoppage is something that brings a lot of risk to any other play on the market.

I am sitting this one out, however I am going to have a fun play on the draw for some interest.

BETTING TIP

£5 on the draw 22/1 Sky Bet.