Liam Smith Vs Canelo Alvarez – Preview and Prediction

Following Kell Brooks gutsy display last weekend, Liam Smith becomes the second British fighter in a week looking to shock the boxing world by beating one of the sports highly regarded pound for pound fighters in Mexican Canelo Alvarez.

Smith is the champion defending his WBO super welterweight belt as Canelo Alvarez looks to regain a world title at the 154 lb limit for the first time in 3 years, following a recent spell competing for middleweight titles, at catchweight limits.

This is quite a step up for Liam Smith who has been fighting domestic and European level opposition his whole career, while we will certainly find out more about Liam Smith this weekend, this fight is a far cry from your John Thompson’s and Jimmy Kelly’s, no disrespect meant.

However Smith is a much improved fighter over the last few years and has molded into an extremely effective pressure fighter who puts together some great combinations and has a very solid hook to the body in his armory.

Smith also holds a very effective guard and overall has a decent enough defense, he also has an air of stubbornness and grit about him that could point to a tough night for Canelo Alvarez if he overlooks the challenge that Smith presents.

Despite being two years younger, Canelo Alvarez has amassed twice the fights Smith has on his professional resume and has been fighting professionally since the age of 15, he now has a wealth of experience at elite level and brings to the table experience Liam Smith just doesn’t have at this kind of level.

Canelo is a great counter puncher and fighters who have been in the ring with the Mexican note his strength and power being among his biggest assets.

Historically Canelo struggles more with technical boxers than pressure fighters, he easily dealt with the likes of James Kirkland and Alfredo Angulo whereas had struggles against Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara and got no where near Floyd Mayweather Jr. On that note Liam Smith really needs to bring something extra special to the ring this Saturday night.

One weakness or question of doubt over Alvarez is his stamina, his output isn’t always high and he likes to take breaks during rounds, for Smith to win he really needs to try and exploit that and attempt to make Alvarez work every second of every round whilst utilising his best work to the body.

I am not ruling out Smith being very competitive in this fight but it’s a big ask to actually back him to win it when there are still so many question marks remaining in regards to his ability at elite level and he will likely need a knockout to win in Texas. However at odds of nearly 10/1 on Smith at some books you could argue there is some value there.

However Canelo has been there and done that, his style has always matched well with good pressure offensive fighters and I haven’t seen anything in Smith at this level to make me believe he can break that mold, but I do believe his stubborn and gritty demeanor could make this a more competitive bout than the odds suggest.

Ultimately however I think Canelo gets the job done in the second half of this contest but it is not a fight I would bet big on. I like the 5/2 being offered on Alvarez to win in rounds 7-12 at 5/2 down at Paddy Power.


BETTING TIP: 1 pt on Canelo Alvarez 7-12 Paddy Power