Canelo Alvarez Vs Gennady Golovkin – Preview and Prediction

It is the one the fans have been waiting for, the most anticipated matchup of the year between Mexican Canelo Alvarez and Kazakhstani Gennady Golovkin, and it takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this weekend.

All the middleweight belts will be on the line with exception to one, the WBO middleweight title which is held by Billy Joe Saunders, who also fights this weekend, defending the belt against Willie Monroe Jr.

Matchups like these don’t happen enough in boxing, this is the best versus the best, a fight that divides opinion and one that even the sharpest minds in the sport could not surely call with complete confidence.

That is exactly my stance on this fight, I have been leaning back and forth on this one but the truth is I see ways in which both guys win and by either decision or knockout. This is one of the more difficult fights to predict, but as boxing fans, this is what we want, 50/50 fights. The best versus the best.

Canelo Alvarez began his professional career at the age of just 15 years old, he has already amassed a 51 fight career at just 27 years of age, a rarity at his level in modern day boxing.

Golovkin had a decorated amateur career before turning professional, winning the world championships in 2003 and collecting a silver medal at the Olympics in Athens 2004, before turning professional in 2006. A tough upbringing on the streets of Kazakhstan saw him street fighting before making good of his skillset in the square circle.

Different paths have brought the two together to contest what is by far the biggest matchup in the sport right now, regardless of the outcome the two fighters should be respected for taking on the challenge.

The market is fairly close with Golovkin priced up at around 4/6 and Canelo 6/4, that is a reasonable line but doesn’t invite me in for a play on either guy at those prices.

There are question marks over both fighters level of opposition over the last few years, Golovkin hasn’t had much competition in the middleweight division and in his last bout against Danny Jacobs Golovkin looked flat and ground out a close unanimous decision in a fight I actually thought could have gone either way.

It does leave the question mark as to whether at the age of 35 is Golovkin starting to fade, against both Kell Brook and Danny Jacobs, Golovkin certainly was not difficult to hit.

Canelo has gained a reputation for fighting guys out of their natural weight and over the years has had a few decisions sent his way that could be argued. Many felt he lost to Erislandy Lara but got a split decision win, also his bouts against Austin Trout and Miguel Cotto were arguably a lot closer than the official scoring may have you believe. Then most had him losing to a blown up welterweight in Amir Khan before landing a one-punch knockout in the 6th round.

There has certainly been a lot to analyse before making my final prediction, which in truth is not my most confident prediction ever, however, I will be backing Golovkin on points this weekend, at around 4/1 this for me is the best play for value in the market.

I see the fight going the distance, both guys have high boxing IQ’s and I can see the bout being a very technical one, with both guys looking to set traps and draw the other in. Also, both have shown excellent chins throughout their careers, of course, a knockout either way is possible but for me, this will be a technical and tactical distance fight.

I think with Golovkin being the naturally bigger man, with an underrated jab and advantage in strength and punching power will be able to impose himself on the fight and do enough to win a decision in Las Vegas this weekend.

Of course, if the fight is remotely close don’t be surprised if Golden Boy’s cash cow Canelo walks away with a controversial decision, this is the risk you have to take if you are taking the 4/1 on a Golovkin points victory.

There are also majority decision and split decision markets that may be worth a look at which offer prices of a minimum of 10/1. Also, any bet would be wise to cover with a small stake on the draw.


BETTING TIP – 1 pt on Golovkin by decision 4/1 Betfair


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