Brandon Rios Vs Mike Alvarado – 30/03/13

This is a rematch of last years fight of the year contender that as many predicted turned into an absolute slugfest which ended in Rios eventually stopping Alvarado in the 7th but he had to work hard for that and Alvarado pushed him all the way and was certainly not disgraced as the fact there is a rematch would suggest.

Both are big hitters and the fact that both landed clean blow after clean blow on each other, with no knockdowns and the fact the fight was actually stopped with both fighters still on their feet also gives credit to both their chins, it was a war that Rios in the end showed that extra spark to win it interesting though at the stoppage the judges could barely split them either 57-57 57-57 and 56-58 to Rios, so point is, prior to the stoppage it was still any ones fight, However some may argue Alvarado was very unfortunate not to be ahead on at least one of those scorecards.

Rios no doubt won the first fight on the inside, although Alvarado also had much success on the inside i feel Rios looked that little but more comfortable on the inside, was able to roll more shots on the inside and had a slight edge in power and obviously his chin held up the longest.

Alvarado however had the best of it when he kept the fight on the outside, using the Jab to keep Rios at range then stepping in throwing one twos and effective combinations, then stepping out again when Rios launched an offense, it looked to me like he was able outbox Rios at times in that fight. 

It was an explosive finish in the 7th and Rios really did a job on Alvarado it seemed to me like a momentary lapse of defensive concentration from Alvarado cost him that fight, Rios landed 2 big shots in the centre of the ring that rocked Alavardo to his boots and was brutal in finishing him on the ropes, no question correct stoppage from Referee, Alvarado was playing with the fairies.

The interesting factor here is in the first fight the bookmakers priced this up at 4/6 Rios and 13/8 Alvarado, now you can get 7/2 or there abouts on Alvarado and the best you can actually on a Rios KO is 4/6 the same price he was for a straight play last time out, now i know Rios stopped Alvarado in the 7th on paper it looks a decisive result but in boxing terms and from what i could see and take out of the first fight, Alvarado is still live here. 

It will take a mighty performance from Alvarado but i believe he can still win this fight if he can keep more of the fight at range more and work off the jab, of course he will have to fight on the inside, you don’t keep a warrior like Rios at bay for 12 round but he has shown he can still hold his own with Rios there to a degree.

Most fancy Rios to inflict another stoppage win on Alvarado and to be honest i cannot argue with them, it is likely this may occur as Rios is always rough and ready however i have always said when sizing up boxing bets, one of the most important things to consider are the odds, you can pick 1/10 odds on shots and win 90% on the time yet you still won’t turn a profit, does 1/4 represent value on Rios given the last fight, no it certainly doesn’t.

Im going to take a shot at Alvarado using the knowledge he has from the first fight and better his performance this time and if he does that he may well surprise a few, i don’t see him stopping Rios as Rios is just too tough however i can see him grinding out a narrow win on the cards.

INSTRUCTIONS 

Bankroll 

£5000 – £30 on Alvarado 10/3 at BET365 

£2500 – £15 on Alvarado 10/3 at BET365 

£1000 – £6 on Alvarado 10/3 at BET365

£500 – £3 on Alvarado 10/3 at BET365